A systematic look at the Bitcoin four-year cycle
Research into three completed market cycles (2013–2025) turned into an executable model: projected bottom and peak windows, entry/exit triggers, and a strategy state machine — with a risk-averse approach that locks in profit early instead of waiting for the top.
Calendar convergence
Three independent methods all point to the same bottom and peak windows — the strongest signal in the model.
Price-derived indicators
200-week MA, 200/111/350-day MA, and Pi Cycle Top cross are recalculated daily from live price data.
Automatic alerts
The moment a trigger fires, you get an instant Telegram message — no need to check a dashboard.
Honest about uncertainty
Every conclusion is labeled with a confidence tier (HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW/DISCARDED). No false precision.
Note
Price-derived indicators (MAs, Pi Cycle) plus on-chain metrics (MVRV, MVRV Z-Score, realized price, Puell) via the free Coin Metrics community API, updated daily. Not investment advice; pattern extrapolation from a small sample (n=3 cycles).